Is it Time for the Dollar ?
Is it Time for the Dollar ?: On 4th Dec I wrote a Long short report titled "It's Time for Gold" and it was 1238$ then. Now at 1328 we have an impulsive five wave advance in gold quietly going on. What I got wrong though is that I did also expect the commodities pack to rise, and initially they did not. Then the dollar fell in 3 waves in a channel as shown below in Dec. So despite being long term bearish the dollar I turned medium term bullish.
The chart of the dollar below shows a small 5 wave advance in wave i from the 09/01 low, after a 3 wave decline in a channel. This count remains valid as long as we are above that low of 94.6350. The the decline last night is still part of wave ii. This is the reason I have been recently wrongly looking for a setback in commodities prices. With the FED meet behind us and discounted the real trend for these assets should become clear. Sell on news is an old market mantra. Clarity should emerge in the next few days as to the real trend in the dollar. The waves still say up first. This is critical to what commodities in general do. If the dollar continues lower then it will be a different ball game.
The chart of the dollar below shows a small 5 wave advance in wave i from the 09/01 low, after a 3 wave decline in a channel. This count remains valid as long as we are above that low of 94.6350. The the decline last night is still part of wave ii. This is the reason I have been recently wrongly looking for a setback in commodities prices. With the FED meet behind us and discounted the real trend for these assets should become clear. Sell on news is an old market mantra. Clarity should emerge in the next few days as to the real trend in the dollar. The waves still say up first. This is critical to what commodities in general do. If the dollar continues lower then it will be a different ball game.
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